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Week 32.3 uh, repeating of course, percentage, of survival.
"It's not my fault."
Hello, my friends.
First of all, if you’re reading this on Wednesday, May 11, 2022, welcome to the 17th anniversary of this: (warning it has language you’ll encounter if you talk to me.)
Let us get to it, as I’ve got work to do.
First of all, if City manage to finish the season on a 13 win, 2 draw, 1 loss run down the stretch, they completely deserve to win the League. No sidestepping it.
I had a colleague at a particularly horrible ad agency 10 years ago named Michelle Esposito. I’d host happy hours in my office (we even made signs and coffee mugs with the bar’s name; The Whiskey River.) that really turned more into group therapy sessions.
During one of these sessions, Michelle talked about Joy Points™. Joy Points™ were when you, as a producer / project manager / professional adult in the room, looked at a project at the beginning and said, “This is where it will get into trouble. This is where it will run aground.”
And then no one listens to you and plows forward. And then you hit those points and the project goes to hell just exactly the way you said it would.
Those are Joy Points™.
Now, allow me to don my Steve KornackiKhakis.
That said, here’s a thing I don’t get: In mid January, when the gap got to 15 points, Rebecca Lowegot on my TV with some combination of Robbies and a Tim and possibly an Arlow and told me the Premier League title race was over. I know I am biased, but I’m also sometimes
Liverpool had 2 games in hand, and a game at Man City. Now, I know we don’t win a lot at City, but that’s still 9 reasonably believable points right there. Throw in another random loss and tie and the gap is closed. Which is pretty close to what happened. That’s a Joy Point™ for me.
Further, I am the guy sitting on his couch yelling, “This isn’t over!” They’re the people whose job depends on me coming back week after week to watch more of this soccer thing. Only the most very partisan of us would do that if we thought it was over. I’m not even asking for you to lie to me, guys. Just let me dream. A COMPLETELY REASONABLE DREAM.
So, you might recall just a few short days ago when I broke down a not crazy set of match scores that would lead to Man City and Liverpool tied on points, goal differential, goals scored and away goals versus. You might recall that even included a draw against Spurs. (which is exactly what happened. That’s a Joy Point™ for me.) Which would then (possibly) trigger a winner take all match at a neutral site. Well, two days later, the Athletic laid out just such a scenario. That’s a Joy Point™ for me.
You might also recall that months ago, I looked at the table and said, “Spurs are definitely finishing top 4.
And now to really turn up the Kornacki
I’m about to base a shit ton of conjecture on numbers from fivethirtyeight.com. I also know this is not how probability really works, but bear with me. Consider it discovering which world in the
metaverse multiverse we live in.
Everyone says this PL race is over. I think that’s most probably the case. BUT.
If we take 538’s propose wining certainty per match and multiply it out, here’s what we get:
That is to say, if Liverpool play Southampton 100 times, 538 (and therefore us) would expect them to win 80 times. Seventy seven times out of 100 against Wolves. In 61.60 percent of the worlds in this multiverse, you’d expect Liverpool to win both of their remaining matches. MULTIVERSE OF HAPPINESS!
The path to undefeated for City is much less likely. This is almost entirely due to the risk of them playing an extra match. But in 38.30 percent of the worlds, City win out. In 17 percent of the worlds, West Ham beat them. That costs them 3 points. That evens the league up. In 19 percent of the worlds, Villa ties them on the last day. That costs them 4 points. In 3.23 percent of the worlds, City drop 4 points.
In 1.98968 percent of the worlds in this
metaverse multiverse, Liverpool win out and City drops 4 points.
It’s in the bag.
Here’s a thing
Along with Luke Ayling's red card, Leeds picked up their 95th and 96th yellow cards of the season, setting a new record for the most bookings for a club within a single Premier League campaign - Leeds - 2021-22 (96) Sunderland - 2014-15 (94) Derby - 1999-00 (93).
Here’s another thing
Yet another thing
This is how the world ends.
The main thing
You know what? We’re so close to the end of the seasons, I’m just going to put all the rest of the matches here for the Premier League, FA Cup, Champions League, Europa League, Championship Playoffs, Sky Bet League One Playoffs, and Sky Bet League Two Playoffs. It’ll just make it all easier later to talk about what actually happens.
It’ll also allow you to block off your work calendars.
And, if you should need a reminder on who all these leagues are and what does what, the English Football Pyramid Explainer I did should break it all down pretty good for you. It’s here.
Wednesday, May 11
Leeds - Chelsea (Peacock)
Leicester - Norwich (Peacock)
Watford - Everton (Peacock)
Wolves - Man City (Universo - USA)
Thursday, May 12
Spurs - Arsenal (Universo - USA)
Friday, May 13
[Championship Playoffs] Luton Town vs. Huddersfield Town (ESPN+)
Saturday, May 14
[Championship Playoffs] Sheffield United vs. Nottingham Forest (ESPN+)
[FA Cup Final] Chelsea vs. Liverpool (ESPN+)
[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] Mansfield Town vs. Northampton Town (ESPN+)
Sunday, May 15
Spurs - Burnley (USA)
[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] Swindon Town vs. Port Vale (ESPN+)
Aston Villa - Crystal Palace (Peacock)
Leeds - Brighton (Peacock)
Watford - Leicester (Peacock)
West Ham - Man City (USA)
Wolves - Norwich (Peacock)
Everton - Brentford (Telemundo - USA)
Monday, May 16
Newcastle - Arsenal (Univeso-USA)
Tuesday, May 17
Southampton - Liverpool (Universo-USA)
[Championship Playoffs] Nottingham Forest vs. Sheffield United (ESPN+)
[Championship Playoffs] Huddersfield Town vs. Luton Town (ESPN+)
Wednesday, May 18
[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] Northampton Town vs. Mansfield Town (ESPN+)
[Europa League Final] Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Rangers (Paramount+)
Thursday, May 19
Everton - Crystal Palace (Universo-USA)
[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] Port Vale vs. Swindon Town (ESPN+)
Aston Villa vs. Burnley (Peacock)
Chelsea vs. Leicester (Peacock)
Saturday, May 21
[Sky Bet League One Playoffs] Sunderland - Wycombe Wanderers (ESPN+)
Sunday, May 22
11:00 (The Shinehardt Wig Company hasn’t determined who’s getting bumped to CNBC and the Golf Channel yet)
Arsenal vs. Everton
Brentford vs. Leeds
Brighton vs. West Ham
Burnley vs. Newcastle
Chelsea vs. Watford
Crystal Palace vs. Man United
Leicester vs. Southampton
Liverpool vs. Wolves
Man City vs. Aston Villa
Norwich vs. Spurs
Saturday, May 28
[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] League Two Team TBD vs. League Two Team TBD (ESPN+)
[Champions League Final] Liverpool vs. Real Madrid (Paramount+)
Sunday, May 29
[Championship Playoffs] Championship TBD v Championship TBD (ESPN+)
So how do I think this is going to go?
I will build a flowchart or 7 for the last day of the season.
City gets a tie in there somewhere and win the league by 1 lousy point. Again.
Top 4 is City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs.
Arsenal goes to Europa at 5.
West Ham pips Man U.
Norwich, Watford and Everton get relegated.
Nottingham Forest gets promoted.
Sunderland gets promoted.
Swindon Town gets promoted.
Chelsea win the FA Cup.
Rangers win Europa.
Champions League, gun to my head, Liverpool somehow win it by one goal. Might be after 90’.
I reserve the right to change all of these this afternoon and again tomorrow.
Take care of yourself. And each other.
A couple of months ago, Steve Kornacki showed up in my “People you may know” on Facebook. It turns out a friend of mine from college worked with him. I have not figured out how to use this information yet. Mainly out of nervousness.
Who is as close to a saint as you’ll get in this house.
Would you believe it seems the Premier League has never actually worked out how this might happen? Sure the odds are small that two teams tie so exactly for the top spot … but start throwing in all the other spots in the table that “matter” … top 4 … 5th … 17th … and all those extra rolls of the dice every season start adding up. Surely this gets addressed this summer.
Don’t ask me to go find it, it’s there and you remember it.
Ok, what’s more likely is Liverpool finish with 92 points which would have been enough to win the Premier League in 23 of its 30 seasons.