Week 32.3 uh, repeating of course, percentage, of survival.

"It's not my fault."

Hello, my friends.

First of all, if you’re reading this on Wednesday, May 11, 2022, welcome to the 17th anniversary of this: (warning it has language you’ll encounter if you talk to me.)

Let us get to it, as I’ve got work to do.

A rant

First of all, if City manage to finish the season on a 13 win, 2 draw, 1 loss run down the stretch, they completely deserve to win the League. No sidestepping it.

I had a colleague at a particularly horrible ad agency 10 years ago named Michelle Esposito. I’d host happy hours in my office (we even made signs and coffee mugs with the bar’s name; The Whiskey River.) that really turned more into group therapy sessions.

During one of these sessions, Michelle talked about Joy Points™. Joy Points™ were when you, as a producer / project manager / professional adult in the room, looked at a project at the beginning and said, “This is where it will get into trouble. This is where it will run aground.”

And then no one listens to you and plows forward. And then you hit those points and the project goes to hell just exactly the way you said it would.

Those are Joy Points™.

Now, allow me to don my Steve Kornacki¹ Khakis.

That said, here’s a thing I don’t get: In mid January, when the gap got to 15 points, Rebecca Lowe² got on my TV with some combination of Robbies and a Tim and possibly an Arlow and told me the Premier League title race was over. I know I am biased, but I’m also sometimes smart observant. And I can do math. Sometimes.

Liverpool had 2 games in hand, and a game at Man City. Now, I know we don’t win a lot at City, but that’s still 9 reasonably believable points right there. Throw in another random loss and tie and the gap is closed. Which is pretty close to what happened. That’s a Joy Point™ for me.

Further, I am the guy sitting on his couch yelling, “This isn’t over!” They’re the people whose job depends on me coming back week after week to watch more of this soccer thing. Only the most very partisan of us would do that if we thought it was over. I’m not even asking for you to lie to me, guys. Just let me dream. A COMPLETELY REASONABLE DREAM.

So, you might recall just a few short days ago when I broke down a not crazy set of match scores that would lead to Man City and Liverpool tied on points, goal differential, goals scored and away goals versus. You might recall that even included a draw against Spurs. (which is exactly what happened. That’s a Joy Point™ for me.) Which would then (possibly) trigger a winner take all match at a neutral site³. Well, two days later, the Athletic laid out just such a scenario. That’s a Joy Point™ for me.

You might also recall that months ago⁴, I looked at the table and said, “Spurs are definitely finishing top 4. There are all these precincts out in Bucks County, Pennsylvania that went for Hillary in 2016 that should go heavy for Spurs. They’re playing well and just have too many points available in games in hand that they’ll pick up and climb the table.” That’s a possible Joy Point™ for me.

And now to really turn up the Kornacki

I’m about to base a shit ton of conjecture on numbers from fivethirtyeight.com. I also know this is not how probability really works, but bear with me. Consider it discovering which world in the metaverse multiverse we live in.

Everyone says this PL race is over. I think that’s most probably the case. BUT.

If we take 538’s propose wining certainty per match and multiply it out, here’s what we get:

That is to say, if Liverpool play Southampton 100 times, 538 (and therefore us) would expect them to win 80 times. Seventy seven times out of 100 against Wolves. In 61.60 percent of the worlds in this multiverse, you’d expect Liverpool to win both of their remaining matches. MULTIVERSE OF HAPPINESS!

The path to undefeated for City is much less likely. This is almost entirely due to the risk of them playing an extra match. But in 38.30 percent of the worlds, City win out. In 17 percent of the worlds, West Ham beat them. That costs them 3 points. That evens the league up. In 19 percent of the worlds, Villa ties them on the last day. That costs them 4 points. In 3.23 percent of the worlds, City drop 4 points.

In 1.98968 percent of the worlds in this metaverse multiverse, Liverpool win out and City drops 4 points.

It’s in the bag.⁵

Here’s a thing

Along with Luke Ayling's red card, Leeds picked up their 95th and 96th yellow cards of the season, setting a new record for the most bookings for a club within a single Premier League campaign - Leeds - 2021-22 (96) Sunderland - 2014-15 (94) Derby - 1999-00 (93).⁶

Here’s another thing

Marcelo dropped from Lyon first team for "farting and laughing" in dressing room - sources

Yet another thing

This is how the world ends.

The main thing

You know what? We’re so close to the end of the seasons, I’m just going to put all the rest of the matches here for the Premier League, FA Cup, Champions League, Europa League, Championship Playoffs, Sky Bet League One Playoffs, and Sky Bet League Two Playoffs. It’ll just make it all easier later to talk about what actually happens.

It’ll also allow you to block off your work calendars.

And, if you should need a reminder on who all these leagues are and what does what, the English Football Pyramid Explainer I did should break it all down pretty good for you. It’s here.

Wednesday, May 11

2:30

Leeds - Chelsea (Peacock)

2:45

Leicester - Norwich (Peacock)

Watford - Everton (Peacock)

3:15

Wolves - Man City (Universo - USA)

Thursday, May 12

2:45

Spurs - Arsenal (Universo - USA)

Friday, May 13

2:45 PM

[Championship Playoffs] Luton Town vs. Huddersfield Town (ESPN+)

Saturday, May 14

10:00

[Championship Playoffs] Sheffield United vs. Nottingham Forest (ESPN+)

11:45 AM

[FA Cup Final] Chelsea vs. Liverpool (ESPN+)

2:45 PM

[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] Mansfield Town vs. Northampton Town (ESPN+)

Sunday, May 15

7:00 AM

Spurs - Burnley (USA)

[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] Swindon Town vs. Port Vale (ESPN+)

9:00

Aston Villa - Crystal Palace (Peacock)

Leeds - Brighton (Peacock)

Watford - Leicester (Peacock)

West Ham - Man City (USA)

Wolves - Norwich (Peacock)

11:30

Everton - Brentford (Telemundo - USA)

Monday, May 16

3:00 PM

Newcastle - Arsenal (Univeso-USA)

Tuesday, May 17

2:45 PM

Southampton - Liverpool (Universo-USA)

[Championship Playoffs] Nottingham Forest vs. Sheffield United (ESPN+)

2:45 PM

[Championship Playoffs] Huddersfield Town vs. Luton Town (ESPN+)

Wednesday, May 18

2:45 PM

[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] Northampton Town vs. Mansfield Town (ESPN+)

8:00

[Europa League Final] Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Rangers (Paramount+)

Thursday, May 19

2:45 PM

Everton - Crystal Palace (Universo-USA)

[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] Port Vale vs. Swindon Town (ESPN+)

3:00 PM

Aston Villa vs. Burnley (Peacock)

Chelsea vs. Leicester (Peacock)

Saturday, May 21

10:00

[Sky Bet League One Playoffs] Sunderland - Wycombe Wanderers (ESPN+)

Sunday, May 22

11:00 (The Shinehardt Wig Company hasn’t determined who’s getting bumped to CNBC and the Golf Channel yet)

Arsenal vs. Everton

Brentford vs. Leeds

Brighton vs. West Ham

Burnley vs. Newcastle

Chelsea vs. Watford

Crystal Palace vs. Man United

Leicester vs. Southampton

Liverpool vs. Wolves

Man City vs. Aston Villa

Norwich vs. Spurs

Saturday, May 28

11:00 AM

[Sky Bet League Two Playoffs] League Two Team TBD vs. League Two Team TBD (ESPN+)

3:00 PM

[Champions League Final] Liverpool vs. Real Madrid (Paramount+)

Sunday, May 29

11:25

[Championship Playoffs] Championship TBD v Championship TBD (ESPN+)

Tealeaves

So how do I think this is going to go?

1. I will build a flowchart or 7 for the last day of the season.

2. City gets a tie in there somewhere and win the league by 1 lousy point. Again.

3. Top 4 is City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs.

4. Arsenal goes to Europa at 5.

5. West Ham pips Man U.

6. Norwich, Watford and Everton get relegated.

7. Nottingham Forest gets promoted.

8. Sunderland gets promoted.

9. Swindon Town gets promoted.

10. Chelsea win the FA Cup.

11. Rangers win Europa.

12. Champions League, gun to my head, Liverpool somehow win it by one goal. Might be after 90’.

13. I reserve the right to change all of these this afternoon and again tomorrow.

Take care of yourself. And each other.

-Colby

1. A couple of months ago, Steve Kornacki showed up in my “People you may know” on Facebook. It turns out a friend of mine from college worked with him. I have not figured out how to use this information yet. Mainly out of nervousness.

2. Who is as close to a saint as you’ll get in this house.

3. Would you believe it seems the Premier League has never actually worked out how this might happen? Sure the odds are small that two teams tie so exactly for the top spot … but start throwing in all the other spots in the table that “matter” … top 4 … 5th … 17th … and all those extra rolls of the dice every season start adding up. Surely this gets addressed this summer.

4. Don’t ask me to go find it, it’s there and you remember it.

5. Ok, what’s more likely is Liverpool finish with 92 points which would have been enough to win the Premier League in 23 of its 30 seasons.

6. Source: This tweet